Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."